Vol 20, Issue 5

January 30, 2006

A Look Ahead to 2006

Predictions, Podcasts, and Blogs. Oh My!

By Kevin Krewell

While this issue looks back at the best of 2005, I'd like to take this opportunity to look ahead to 2006 with a few modest predictions and requests. A caveat first: The problem with predicting the future without having any actual control over the people and companies involved leaves the predictions mostly guesswork and wishful thinking. I can make my predictions, but I cannot directly make those predictions come true. Other people must make these predictions come true through execution and decisions. So if I'm wrong, it's someone else's fault!

Now that I've completely disclaimed any responsibility for them, here are my predictions for 2006:

Apple Computer will quietly begin to talk to AMD about supplying processors sometime in the future. Not that Apple will actively try to undercut its new relationship with Intel in 2006, but it would be prudent to begin preparing for the future. Eventually, Apple will piss off Intel, as it has previous processor suppliers (Freescale and IBM), and will need a backup supplier. Apple will probably add AMD to its processor supplier list in 2008.

AMD will continue to gain significant market share in servers. It has always been clear to us that Opteron has been the more modern and efficient design for mainstream servers, compared with the hyper-pipelined NetBurst Xeon. Opteron was designed as a server processor that can be used for desktop and mobile, whereas the hyper-pipelined NetBurst microarchitecture was designed for media processing, not data processing. Overall AMD market share in client and mobile processors also looks to be gaining, but not as dramatically as in servers.

Editorial board member Fred Weber agrees and adds his own prediction that AMD will gain significant market share in commercial clients (desktop and mobile). Fred sees significant gains for Sun Microsystems, armed with Opteron servers and the new Niagara chip. Although Fred may be a bit biased toward AMD and AMD's partner Sun, he is also quite bullish on the new Intel-based Apple computers and expects Apple to continue gaining mind share and market share, expanding its market to sweep up more entertainment devices.

In his CES keynote, Bill Gates declared that mainstream high-value, legal high-definition video content will come to media-center PCs later this year, but I also expect there will be many restrictions to that access. To get the digital high-definition content from studios and cable companies (as well as from satellite and phone companies), the high-value content will have to be highly protected from casual (and not-so-casual) piracy. Those restrictions will likely require the Intel Viiv platform, with Microsoft's Vista operating system, and video connectors with HDCP (High-bandwidth Digital Content Protection) encryption on an HDMI (High-Definition Multi-media Interface) connection. This means you'll probably need a brand new high-definition media-center PC and will be unable to upgrade an existing MCPC to high definition. I also expect that the Linux operating system will not qualify, unless it's a highly customized version (like TiVO). The one wild card will be if Steve Jobs and Apple build Apple's own version of a high-definition media PC.

The most obvious prediction is that there will be more media processors in 2006 focused on the H.264 standard. I expect there will be a shakeout and consolidation of those offerings in 2007.

What Won't Happen in 2006

While there are often many predictions of what will happen in 2006, I have a few predictions of what I think will not happen.

The first prediction of 2006 nonevents is that despite the continued rumors of Itanium's demise, neither Intel nor HP will back away from Itanium in 2006. Although the prospects for Itanium are not particularly bright, I think the Itanium program will continue to limp along for another few years. Fundamentally, the architecture concepts behind Itanium represent the thinking of the 1980s and '90s wide-issue statically compiled code. Server workloads are moving toward virtualized, dynamically recompiled, highly threaded code, where Itanium has no strengths. Itanium also hasn't blown its primary competitor, the IBM Power processor family, out of the water. If Intel had sunk the same resources into a more traditional RISC architecture (such as Alpha, which appears to be everyone's favorite canceled chip) that it did into EPIC, we would likely be in roughly the same place—except that the Alpha architecture wouldn't have been reviled as much by the competition as the VLIW-like EPIC architecture has been.

AMD will not pass 25% market share of the worldwide PC processor market in 2006. In fact, I don't think AMD will ever pass 25% of the PC processor market. First, it would strain AMD's fab capacity to supply the 60 million or more processors without reducing the average die size significantly and in this era of dual-core processors, the die sizes will actually have to grow somewhat before process shrinks can get them back under control. I also have a deep-seated belief that if AMD were to reach 25% market share, it would spark a price war with Intel that AMD lacks the financial strength to win. I saw it before, when I was at AMD. When everyone at AMD was convinced that Intel wouldn't cut prices to meet AMD's prices, because Intel would lose more money than AMD would, Intel did go for the jugular to deprive AMD of the revenue and market share opportunities. Never, ever, underestimate how strongly Intel will protect its position.

In a related prediction, I don't think Dell will use AMD desktop and mobile processors in 2006. Dell is likely waiting to see how well Intel's next-generation microarchitecture performs against AMD's Hammer architecture. Dell will also likely wait to see how AMD's Fab 36 and foundry suppliers ramp up in 2006. Finally, Dell will want to see how Intel treats Intel's new best friend, Apple Computer, in 2006 before deciding if it (Dell) needs to teach Intel a lesson. I should note that, at the recent CES, Michael Dell was saying positive things about AMD (again). I do believe that Dell will use AMD's Opteron in 2007.

In 2006, John Dvorak will not get any less cranky.

Fun With Podcasts and Blogs

There is this new phenomenon where it seems that everyone wants to be a radio star. It's called podcasting, named by combining the name of the most popular portable music player, the Apple iPod, with the reach of "casting" (as in broadcasting) the content out for many to download. Recently, Apple's iTunes added a podcast section, making it extremely simple to find popular podcasts, download them, and transfer them to your iPod. I have become one of the enthusiasts of podcasts. In particular, I enjoy listening to This Week in Technology (also known as TWiT) with former members of TechTV, including host Leo Laporte and resident curmudgeon John Dvorak. The advantage of podcast is that I can listen to them whenever I want—in the car while commuting, in the gym while working out, or on my PC in the office. The only thing I find frustrating is that because the podcast is prerecorded, I find myself complaining to the iPod when a speaker gets something wrong.

I also like to listen to a locally produced public broadcasting show called GeekSpeak, on which I appeared earlier in 2005, and I'm exploring new shows about security and digital photography. Reed Business (our parent company) is exploring the use of podcasts with other tech publications, so we may wind up contributing to corporate efforts. I should note that not everyone wants to be a podcast star. Tom Halfhill recently mentioned that he specifically went into written journalism because he didn't want to go into radio or TV!

The other movement that has been sweeping the media business is blogs (short for web logs). Blogs predate podcasts by a few years, and I have dabbled in my own blog in the past. I haven't kept it up because I like to think my editorial page in MPR is my (very well edited) blog, even if it's updated only once a month, I have doubts that readers will be fascinated by my daily thoughts. Sometimes blogging strike me as part narcissism (everyone will be thrilled to read my every thought); part marketing (the more I write about my company, the more people will believe we're great); part popularity contest (my blog is more interesting than your blog; therefore I'm better than you). But often blogging can be a positive outlet for people to share ideas. I think that providing a mechanism for more direct and honest communication is a good thing.

What I don't fully trust are corporate blogs. Because of issues of corporate liability, some editorial control must be considered by the blogger. My own experience with a similar situation occurred years ago when I had posted on an investor discussion board to correct someone on a technical detail, just as I did with engineers every day as an FAE. Later, I was chastised for posting information in a venue where investors communicated—that was the job of investor relations. Of course, I posted only factual information on an existing product, but it goes to show how nervous companies are about legal protections. (Another employee had posted reasonably confidential information on that same site and got into much bigger trouble.) Corporations will have to be mindful of investor lawsuits and potential loose-cannon employees. And everyone knows that posting negative information about your employer will get you fired.

Analysts and journalists also have a public image to protect (and project), so they will often self-edit comments in blogs, as well. Only people with little to lose, and often little to share, can be truly honest. Which is a long-winded way of saying that I don't read many blogs. The only ones I check regularly are those I would call "professional" blogs. My favorites are those focused on the latest consumer devices: Engadget.com and Gizmodo.com; they are good for tracking the latest consumer devices and rumors. For example, during the 2006 CES, Engadget was posting a near-real-time blow-by-blow description of the keynotes. Our corporate cousin, EDN (ww.edn.com) also has a number of worthwhile blogs written by its editorial staff, and recently EDN, eNews, and Electronic Business posted a combined CES show site that included blogs.