Embedded Processor Watch

Editor: Tom Halfhill

In This Issue:

• Arm Extends Reach of ARM10 Pipeline
• Editorial: A Billion Connected PCs? Guess Again
• Cahners MicroDesign Resources Seeks New Analyst

Arm Extends Reach of ARM10 Pipeline

Unable to attain its ambitious frequency goals with the original five-stage pipeline, Arm has extended the ARM10's pipeline to six stages. Arm recently taped out the new core and plans to make it available to licensees on schedule in 2Q00.

When first disclosed last year (see Embedded Processor Watch #23, http://www.MDRonline.com/q/epw/issues/epw_23.html), the ARM10 core retained the same basic five-stage pipeline used in the ARM9. At that time, Arm hoped to reach its goals of 300 MHz and 420 Dhrystone 2.1 MIPS by optimizing the hard-wired logic in each pipe stage. The architects evidently ran into difficulties, because they have broken the old decode stage in two.

Arm calls the extra stage an "issue" stage, but a pipeline diagram in a preliminary technical manual indicates that instruction decoding also begins in that stage. The following "decode" stage completes the decoding and reads operands from the registers.--T.R.H. (The full version of this article appeared in the November 15 issue of Microprocessor Report.)

Editorial: A Billion Connected PCs? Guess Again

Recent foundry investments by Sony and Nintendo to build critical chips for their respective video-game consoles illustrate the potential of these products. Sony is contributing $400 million to its joint venture with Toshiba and building a $600 million fab of its own. Nintendo has committed to the purchase of 300 billion yen (nearly $3 billion) in chips from NEC in exchange for NEC's pledge to build a new $800 million fab dedicated to chips for Nintendo's next-generation system, code-named Dolphin.

NEC's new plant will have the capacity to make 10,000 200-mm wafers per month using 0.13-micron technology. The Sony and Toshiba fabs will each have a similar capacity. Combined, these fabs will have about 30% as much capacity as all of Intel's foundries.

All this for video games? I doubt it. I believe Sony and Nintendo expect their products to create a new market for personal computing devices, machines I dubbed "PC appliances" in a 1996 MicroDesign Resources white paper on this topic. Like PCs, these systems will be general-purpose computers, but unlike PCs, they will forsake flexibility and expandability to enhance reliability and sustainability. Multimedia support will be the starting point for these designs, not an add-on using minor extensions to instruction sets and operating systems.

PCs aren't dead. Despite the apparently huge advantages implied by their raw pixel and polygon throughput, game consoles will not be tremendously faster than contemporary PCs, even on 3D games. PCs will also offer superior display resolution and software compatibility. But which would you rather have in your living room -- a Windows 98 PC, or a Sony PlayStation 2? For most people, the PlayStation 2 is a better choice.

Sure, video-game consoles are just toys, cheaper and less flexible than "real" computers. Point-and-shoot cameras are toys compared with professional cameras, too -- and outsell them 25 to 1. In a few years, we may think of the PC the same way we think of the Nikon F5 -- a great professional tool, but not one we need at home.

Sony and Nintendo seem to agree. Their investments show they expect the new systems will greatly outsell previous game consoles, and with so many new capabilities, it's easy to see why.

The new PC appliances will work as video-game consoles, TV channel guides, CD and DVD players, and living-room Internet-access terminals. (Indeed, 10 years from now we probably won't even remember that the Internet was once the exclusive domain of PCs.) With optional components, these new systems will function as digital-audio recorders (replacing cassette decks, with the added benefit of MP3/SDMI convenience); digital-video recorders, like those from Replay and TiVo (thus obsoleting tape-based VCRs); HDTV tuners; and telephone-answering machines.

Sony's view of the future is reflected in the industrial design of the PlayStation 2. Does it look like a traditional game console? Nope. It's a relatively calm, sober little box, like a small PC or a stereo tuner. Vast numbers of these "games" will find their way into homes without children, and sit on or near the TV to perform functions that have nothing to do with video games.

The TV was the center of home life in the 1980s and 1990s, and I believe it will take on an even greater role in the next decade. The new fabs represent just a small portion of the investments being made to support the television's growing importance. Software and content development will cost billions more, but Sony, in particular, is ready to spend. We've grown used to Sony's once-remarkable entry into the music and movie industries. One day we may see Sony-branded television programs with associated Internet content viewable on the PlayStation 2 only.

Sony already considers video-game revenue when pricing its game consoles. If Sony can extract additional revenue from TV shows, movies, and other multimedia programming (and associated advertising) viewed on its hardware, it can make the PlayStation 2 far more affordable than PCs could ever hope to be. PC profit margins may be low, but negative margins simply aren't a viable option for PC makers.

The potential market for PC appliances is huge, perhaps exceeding a billion customers. Intel's Craig Barrett speaks of "a billion connected PCs," but if Sony and Nintendo are right, most connected computers won't be PCs.

So from this perspective, it's easy to understand why Intel and others are working so hard to reduce the cost of a PC -- but I believe their effort is in vain. Not even Microsoft, with its X-box project, can hope to compete with true PC appliances. Cheap PCs have no future in most homes. PCs will continue to sell to business buyers and home PC enthusiasts, but these customers will be, at best, a small subset of the customer base that Sony, Nintendo, and other vendors can expect to achieve.--P.N.G. (This editorial appeared in the November 15 issue of Microprocessor Report.)

Cahners MicroDesign Resources Seeks New Analyst

Cahners MicroDesign Resources, the publisher of this newsletter as well as Microprocessor Watch and Microprocessor Report, and the organizer of Microprocessor Forum and Embedded Processor Forum, is seeking another embedded-processor analyst to join its team. Our analysts are highly visible thought leaders in the microprocessor industry and frequently meet with top architects and executives. Candidates must have at least five years of relevant design, marketing, or analysis experience as well as excellent communication skills. For more information, contact Steve Leibson (mailto:sleibson@mdr.cahners.com).