Microprocessor Watch

Editor: Kevin Krewell, kkrewell@mdr.cahners.com

Contributors: Peter N. Glaskowsky, Kevin Krewell, Markus Levy

In This Issue:

• MDR Analysts' Awards for 2001 (continued):
  • 2001 PC Survivor Challenge
  • The Best DSPs of 2001
  • At Least One Chip Niche Is Secure
  • The complete list of nominees is available at:
    http://www.mdronline.com/mpr_public/2002nominees.html
• Tidbits:
  • AMD's 4Q01 Earnings on the Mend
  • Intel 4Q01 Earnings: P4 Leads the Way
  • Transmeta 4Q01 Disaster
  • AMD Extends Model Numbers to Mobile
• Of Interest:
  • Embedded Processor Forum 2002
    Keynotes by Sir Robin Saxby—Executive Chairman, ARM
    and John Bourgoin—Chairman and CEO, MIPS Technologies

2001 PC Survivor Challenge
By Kevin Krewell {2/11/02-01}

The year 2001 was a tough odyssey for the PC industry—a year in which the market contracted and average selling prices (ASP) suffered. After Intel released the long-awaited Pentium 4 in 2000, it became, in 2001, the industry's first PC processor to reach 2GHz. Intel also began transitioning to the 0.13-micron semiconductor process about nine months ahead of AMD. AMD rolled out the Palomino core and resurrected an updated version of the performance-numbering (P- rating) scheme to keep pace with the Pentium 4's higher clock speeds. Transmeta and VIA also made some news in 2001, offering 0.13-micron processors during the year; at last count, however, the two companies together accounted for only about 1% of the market.

This year saw the closest competition for our Analysts' Choice Award in years. AMD's Athlon XP showed that clock speed is not everything, and its predecessors have won the last two years in a row. This contest is not too close for us to call, however, and the sole survivor is not the Athlon XP.

Because of its industry-leading benchmark scores (especially SPEC) and clock frequencies, and because it improved on the IPC and power consumption of its predecessor, allowing Intel to offer a mobile P4 processor, we give Intel's Pentium 4/Northwood the Microprocessor Report Analysts' Choice Award for Best PC Processor of 2001.

Microprocessor Report readers can access the full story here: http://www.mdronline.com/mpr/h/2002/0211/160601.html

The Best DSPs of 2001
By Markus Levy {2/11/02-02}

In 2001, the technology behind digital-signal processors continued to evolve, but the number of new DSP announcements reached an all-time low. Most vendors spent a large portion of their resources polishing their existing products and getting ready for the future. Applications that include VoIP, wireless base stations, and wireless LAN should offer better opportunities in 2002 and beyond.

In previous years, MPR maintained a single category for best DSP of the year, grouping intellectual property cores and chips together. After reviewing the criteria for selecting the best DSP, however, it became obvious that there are enough significant factors to distinguish the two alternatives. In addition, many criteria are important to both categories, including overall value, innovativeness, performance and operating frequency, power consumption, price, product and architectural roadmap, and development tools. Despite the quantitative measures listed above, selecting the best DSP is also a matter of qualitative analysis, and all the nominees have excellent attributes.

The nominees for Analysts' Choice Award for Best DSP Chip of 2001 are Analog Devices' Blackfin 21535, Analog Devices' TigerSHARC TS101S, LSI Logic's LSI402ZX, and Texas Instruments' C6414. (Motorola's 8102, available 1H02, will be a strong contender for the Analysts' Choice Award for Best DSP Chip of 2002.)

The TI's C6414 VLIW processor is certainly the most intricate DSP architecture. Nevertheless, TI's design techniques and excellent manufacturing capabilities allow the company to offer a 600MHz machine. Although MPR has no EEMBC numbers for this processor, TI very believably claims its EEMBC Telemark is substantially better than that of its 300MHz C6203 (with a Telemark of 68.5), even after normalizing for frequency. Combining the TI's C6414's performance and power with the architecture's roadmap, overall value, and development tools makes this device the winner of the Microprocessor Report Analysts' Choice Award for Best DSP Chip of 2001.

Microprocessor Report readers can access the full story here: http://www.mdronline.com/mpr/h/2002/0211/160602.html

At Least One Chip Niche Is Secure
By Peter N. Glaskowsky {2/4/02-01}

Even before the tragic events of September 2001, the market for security processors was growing rapidly. Today, with the U.S. government and private organizations taking a new look at the costs and benefits of heightened security, new applications for security processors are being created almost daily. The most immediate need is to secure networks that now carry data "in the clear." This trend will occur first in corporate wide-area networks (WAN), where the threat is greatest, but LANs will not be far behind.

Security processors will also become a required feature in wireless networks, storage-area networks (SAN), digital-video networks in facilities (such as airports and corporate campuses) having large numbers of security cameras, and cable-modem systems that broadcast customers' Internet traffic throughout their networks.

We at Microprocessor Report have decided to recognize the importance of this trend by instituting an Analysts' Choice Award for security processors. Our nominees this year are Broadcom's BCM5840, Corrent's CR7020, Hifn's 8154, and Securealink's PCC-ISES.

The most valuable security processors are those that are easiest to integrate into networking equipment and that deliver the highest performance. One chip leads the rest, combining gigabit throughput for private-key cryptography and the fastest public-key acceleration available in a multifunction device. We give the Microprocessor Report Analysts' Choice Award for Best Security Processor of 2001 to Corrent's CR7020.

During its lifetime, the CR7020 will face strong competition from Broadcom, Cavium, Hifn, NetOctave (see MPR 11/5/01-05, "NetOctave Secures SANs"), and, possibly, other companies. The winners will be the companies that act quickly to move cost-effective security processing into the widest range of network equipment, from high-cost enterprise routers to high- volume workgroup switches. It is essential that equipment vendors and component suppliers act quickly to communicate the value of secure networks to end users while the public's attention is focused on security issues. If this goal is achieved, security acceleration will soon become a standard feature-not a rare and expensive option.

Microprocessor Report readers can access the full story here: http://www.mdronline.com/mpr/h/2002/0204/160501.html

Tidbits
By Kevin Krewell {2/4/02-02}

AMD's 4Q01 Earnings on the Mend

AMD ended a tough 2001 with improving ASPs and reduced losses. AMD reported fourth-quarter net sales of $951,873,000, which resulted in a net loss of $15,842,000, or $0.05 per share. In addition, recent research reports indicate that in 2001, AMD had a roughly 20% share of the worldwide PC-processor market. Although that market share is well short of the 30% goal AMD's CEO has often cited, it is far ahead of the combined shares of VIA and Transmeta. AMD's ASP improvement was based on a richer mix of Athlon processors and the lower-price Duron. It also indicated that the price war between AMD and Intel has abated.

AMD shipped 7.8 million units in the quarter, putting its output for 2001 at more than 30 million units. In 4Q01, mobile processors accounted for about 10% of the total, and Athlon XP reached 4 million units. AMD announced plans to add an Asian foundry in 2003, to allow it to leverage the technology and capacity in place. The leading foundry candidate would likely be UMC, which manufactures AMD's chip sets.

Intel 4Q01 Earnings: P4 Leads the Way

Intel announced fourth-quarter revenue of $7.0 billion; net income, excluding acquisition-related costs, was $998 million. Intel's results were an improvement over 3Q01 and may have signaled that the worst is over for the PC industry. Intel's ASPs were flat, if the Xbox Pentium III processor is excluded. Intel indicated that it doubled fourth quarter shipments of Pentium 4 from the previous quarter and was ahead of the planned ramp-up. Chip-set revenue was up sharply, and Intel expects to launch the 845G chip set, with integrated graphics, in 1H02, ahead of earlier schedules. Intel also revealed that McKinley, the next-generation Itanium processor, had begun pilot shipments.

Intel plans to cut capital expenses to $5.5 billion in 2002, down sharply from the $7.3 billion it spent in 2001. The cut in capital expenses can be attributed to the amount Intel has already invested in 0.13-micron equipment and initial 300mm wafer production. The next process transition is scheduled for 2003, when Intel begins shipments of its 0.9-micron semiconductor process. Intel indicated it had four fabs running 0.13-micron at the end of 2001, with another scheduled to begin production in 1Q02.

Transmeta 4Q01 Disaster

Transmeta's net revenue for the fourth quarter of its fiscal year 2001 was $1.5 million, a dramatic decrease from $12.4 million for the same period of fiscal 2000. Pro forma net loss, which excludes the effects of noncash charges of $26.7 million, was $23.0 million, or $0.18 per share, for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2001. Transmeta's dismal fourth-quarter result was a result of production problems it had with the TM5800. Transmeta failed to ship sufficient quantities to meet demand. Transmeta would not reveal unit shipments, but it indicated its processor ASP ranged from $80 to $120. If we assume a rough average processor ASP of $100, the $1.5 million in sales would indicate about 15,000 unit sales for the quarter.

Transmeta expects to resume volume shipments of the TM5800 in February 2002 and projects 1Q02 revenues of $3.5 million to $4 million. At the present burn rate, Transmeta still has more than 18 months of cash reserves to draw from. The company should have enough financial resources to introduce and ship the highly integrated TM6000 and its next-generation VLIW core, even if sales of the TM5800 don't pick up. The harder issue is how much good will has it lost with its OEMs because of the TM5800 production fiasco.

AMD Extends Model Numbers to Mobile

AMD launched the latest speed grade of the mobile Athlon 4 1500+ at 1.3GHz on January 28, 2002. In preparation for the launch of the mobile Pentium 4 processor, AMD decided to extend the model-number system it introduced in Athlon XP (see MPR 11/12/01- 02, "Athlon XP Eschews GHz") to its mobile-processor line. AMD's model numbers compare Athlon against Pentium 4 on a number of benchmarks that are similar to the desktop processors'. In one regard, it differs from the desktop model-numbering scheme in that the mobile version places less weight on gaming benchmarks. Because Intel had not launched the mobile Pentium 4 at the time of AMD's processor launch, AMD used a desktop version of the Pentium 4 with an Intel845 DDR platform for the comparison. The mobile Athlon 4 1500+ processor is available at $525 in 1,000-unit quantities and is shipping now in the Compaq Presario 700 notebook series.

Recent research reports indicate that AMD had a 40% share in the U.S. retail notebook market at the end of 2001. Later in 1Q02, AMD will begin the transition to the 0.13-micron process with the launch of the Thoroughbred processor. With it, AMD should be able to reduce power and increase clock frequencies of the mobile Athlon 4 processor. Using AMD's model scheme, Thoroughbred will allow mobile Athlon 4 to compete with mobile Pentium 4 throughout 2002. Thoroughbred will also allow mobile Athlon 4 to be placed in thin- and-light notebooks that it cannot now enter, owing to its higher power envelope.

Upcoming Events of Interest:

Embedded Processor Forum 2002

This year's keynote speakers will be: Sir Robin Saxby—Executive Chairman, ARM and John Bourgoin—Chairman and CEO, MIPS Technologies.

Embedded Processor Forum is the embedded industry's most important week of the year and it's happening April 29 - May 2nd in San Jose, CA.

Embedded Processor Forum is the professional's conference for embedded computing technology. Focused exclusively on
microprocessors and related hardware technologies that are driving the embedded industry, the forum is the most important place in the industry to present and hear new chip announcements.

Whether you're designing networks, information appliances, or computer games…whether your application requires low
power, high performance, or DSP technology…Embedded Processor Forum gives you the in-depth technical information you need to make a winning embedded decision.

Presented by Cahners In-Stat/MicroDesign Resources

Register on line at www.MDRonline.com/epf/register or call 480-483-4441 (in Arizona)

There are other opportunities for companies to participate, including exhibits and sponsorships. For information, contact the Embedded Processor Forum event manager at dmendelson@mdr.cahners.com (707.933.8854).