Intel Microprocessor Forecast
Second Half 2000 Edition

by Linley Gwennap
& Kevin Krewell

List of Figures

 

About Book Table of Contents List of Tables

2  Processor Technology

Projected Coppermine clock speeds at various power limits

Projected Tualatin clock speeds at various power limits

Intel high-end processor roadmap, including Pentium III, Pentium 4, and Itanium

Projected Willamette clock speeds at various power limits

Projected Northwood clock speeds at various power limits

Intel processor slot and socket roadmap, 1999–2002

Maximum power dissipation for several generations of Intel processors

3  Processor Roadmaps

Intel desktop performance PC processor roadmap, 1999–2002

Intel desktop value PC processor roadmap, 1999–2002

Intel mobile performance processor roadmap, 1999–2002

Intel mobile value processor roadmap, 1999–2002

Intel workstation processor roadmap, 1999–2002

Intel server processor roadmap, 1999–2002

4  Chip-Set Roadmaps

Intel desktop PC chip-set roadmap, 1999–2002

Intel mobile PC chip-set roadmap, 1999–2002

Intel server and workstation chip-set roadmap, 1999–2002

5  Intel Processor Pricing

Celeron changed Intel's pricing strategy

Intel price ranges for desktop processors, 3Q99–4Q01

Product positioning for Intel desktop processors, 1998–2003

Intel price ranges for mobile processors, 3Q99–4Q01

6  Intel Manufacturing Capabilities

Capital investment by semiconductor vendors, 1999

Intel wafer capacity, 1Q95–4Q02

Intel wafer capacity on log scale, 1Q95–4Q02

Intel fab capacity in Pentium III (Katmai) units, 1Q95–4Q02

Wafer production by process type, 1Q95–4Q02

Ramp rate of various Intel IC processes

7  Manufacturing Cost

Estimated manufacturing cost at maturity

Intel's average manufacturing cost per chip, 1Q95–4Q02

Average manufacturing cost by processor generation, 1Q94–4Q02

Average manufacturing cost by segment, 1Q95–4Q02

Projected die sizes for varying amounts of L2 cache

8  Microprocessor Unit Shipments

PC processor shipments (Intel and other x86) by quarter, 1Q95–4Q02

Intel 2000 market share in units and revenue

Intel's and competitors' market share, 1Q93–4Q02

Intel CPU shipments by processor family, 1Q95–4Q02

Transition from Pentium II to Pentium III to Pentium 4, 1Q99–4Q02

Intel processor shipments by generation, 1Q93–4Q02

9  Shipments by Segment

Intel's segmentation model has five main segments

Intel processor shipments by segment, 1Q95–4Q02

Intel's desktop performance CPU unit shipments, 1Q95–4Q02

Desktop Pentium II shipments by clock speed, intro–EOL

Desktop Pentium III shipments by clock speed, intro–2Q02

Desktop Pentium 4 (Willamette) shipments by clock speed, intro–4Q02

Desktop value unit shipments, intro–4Q02

Covington and Mendocino shipments by clock speed, intro–EOL

Coppermine-128 shipments by clock speed, intro–2Q02

Timna-based Celeron shipments by clock speed, intro–4Q02

Intel's mobile processor unit shipments, 1Q95–4Q02

Mobile performance shipments by product type, 1Q95–4Q02

Mobile Pentium II shipments by clock speed, intro–EOL

Mobile Pentium III shipments by clock speed, intro–EOL

Mobile value shipments by product type, intro–4Q02

Dixon-based Mobile Celeron shipments by clock speed, intro–EOL

Mobile Celeron with SSE shipments by clock speed, intro–4Q02

Intel's high-end processor unit shipments, intro–4Q02

Intel's high-end processor shipments by product type, intro–4Q02

10  Revenues and Margins

Intel's total company revenue and estimated CPU revenue, 1Q95–4Q01

CPU revenue by processor generation, 1Q93–4Q01

CPU revenue by processor family, 1Q95–4Q01

CPU revenue by market segment, 1Q95–4Q01

Intel CPU average selling price, 1Q95–4Q01

Average selling price by segment, 1Q95–4Q01

Average selling price by processor generation, 1Q95–4Q01

Manufacturing margin by segment, 1Q95–4Q01

11  Conclusions

Relative performance of Intel PC processors over time, 1Q93–4Q02

Average desktop vs. mobile performance, 1Q95–4Q02

Adoption of MMX and SSE in Intel processors, 3Q96–4Q00

Installed base of 3DNow versus SSE, 1Q98–4Q01

Adoption of IA-64 in workstation/server processors, 1Q00–4Q02

Intel desktop PC processor shipments by interface, 1Q97–4Q02

All desktop PC processor shipments by processor interface, 1Q95–4Q02