 Intel
Microprocessor Forecast
Second Half 2000 Edition
by
Linley Gwennap
& Kevin Krewell
1 Methodology
Shipment
Model
Fab Model
Price Estimates
Caveats and Uncertainties
2 Processor Technology
The
Pentium II Family
Mendocino
The
Pentium III Family
Katmai
Tanner
Coppermine
Cascades
Coppermine-128
Timna
Timna-2
Timna-3
Tualatin
The
Pentium 4 Family
Willamette
Foster
Northwood
Gallatin
NorthwoodX
The
IA-64 Family
Merced
McKinley
Madison
Deerfield
Technology
Trends
Packaging
System-Logic Integration
Power Dissipation
Die Proliferation
3 Processor Roadmaps
Segmentation Model
Speed Grades
Desktop
Performance
Coppermine
Willamette
Northwood
Desktop
Value
Coppermine-128
Timna and Timna-2
Tualatin
and Timna-3
Mobile
Performance
Mobile Coppermine
Mobile Tualatin
Mobile Northwood
Mobile
Value
Mobile Coppermine-128
Mobile Tualatin
Mobile Timna
Mininotebook Processors
Workstation
and Server
Cascades
Foster
Gallatin
Merced
McKinley
Madison
Deerfield
4 Chip
Set Roadmaps
New Hub Architecture
New Interfaces
DRAM Choices
Integrated Graphics
Desktop
Performance Chip Sets
Intel 810E
Intel 820
Intel 815
Solano2
Tehama
Brookdale
Desktop
Value Chip Sets
Intel 810
Low-Cost 815
Mobile
Chip Sets
Mobile 440BX
440MX
Mobile Solano
Mobile Brookdale
Workstation
and Server Chip Sets
Intel 840
450NX
Profusion
460GX (Slot M)
Colusa (860)
Plumas
Intel 870
Intel 880
5 Intel Processor Pricing
Price Environment
Scheduling Price Moves
Desktop
Price Projections
Pentium III
Pentium 4
Mendocino
Coppermine-128
Timna
Long-Range Forecast
Mobile
Price Projections
Mobile Pentium III
Mobile Pentium 4
Mobile Celeron
Workstation/Server
Price Projections
Pentium III Xeon
Foster
Itanium
6 Intel Manufacturing Capabilities
Intel's
Fabs
Fab Locations and Processes
Fab Capacities
0.18-Micron Ramp
0.13-Micron and 300-mm Wafer Plans
Capital Expenditures
Manufacturing
Capacity
Wafer Capacity
Fab History
Chip Capacity
Process Transitions
Semiconductor
Process Technology
Current Technology
0.18-Micron P858
0.18-Micron P858.5
0.13-Micron Process
7 Manufacturing Cost
Cost
Estimates
The Cost Model
Processor Parameters
Cache Chips
CPU Packaging
Yield Issues
Chip Cost Estimates
Module Costs
Module Cost Estimates
Cost
Trends
Average Manufacturing Cost
Average Cost by Generation
Average Cost by Segment
Impact of On-Die L2 Cache
Capacity Effects
Competitors' Costs
8 Microprocessor Unit Shipments
x86
Processor Market
PC Market Forecast
PC Processor Forecast
Market Share
Market Share Forecast
Market Share History
Intel
Processor Shipments
Generational
Transitions
9 Shipments by Segment
Desktop
Performance Segment
Desktop Shipments by Product
Desktop Shipments by Clock Speed
Desktop
Value Segment
Celeron Shipments by Product
Celeron Shipments by Clock Speed
Mobile
Performance Segment
Mobile Shipments by Product
Mobile Shipments by Clock Speed
Mobile
Value Segment
Mobile Value Shipments by Product
Mobile Celeron Shipments by Clock Speed
Workstation/Server
Segment
Workstation/Server
Processor Shipments
Workstation/Server Processor Shipments
by Product
10 Revenues
and Margins
Intel's
Revenue
Revenue Forecast
Revenue History
CPU Revenue
Product Line Revenue
Revenue by Segment
Average
Selling Price
Overall ASP
Historical ASP Trends
ASP by Segment
ASP by Product Line
Manufacturing
Margin
Processor Margin
Margins by Segment
11 Conclusions
PC
Performance Trends
Performance
Projections
Historical Processor Performance
Desktop vs. Mobile Performance
Impact
on Software
Transition to SSE
Benefits of SSE
SSE vs. 3DNow
Impact of IA-64
Impact
on System Makers
Shipments by Socket
Key
Challenges for Intel
Transition
to Pentium 4
Demand for Performance
x86 Competition
Emerging Non-PC Platforms
Intel's Workstation/Server Initiative
Rising Manufacturing Costs
Other Factors
Appendix:
Backup Data
Historical
Processor Pricing
Desktop CPU
Mobile CPU
Server CPU
Wafer
Capacity
Shipment
Data
Units
Revenue
Average
Price and Cost
e,
computer graphics, and semiconductor industries.
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